Oil production in Brazil expected to grow by up to 80% in 10 years
Estimates indicate that the national oil production will increase from the current 3 million to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029
247 - Over the next ten years, Brazil is on the verge of experiencing a true boom in oil production. According to Metrópoles, estimates point to an impressive growth in this commodity, increasing from 3 million to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029, representing an 80% increase. From there, production is expected to stabilize around 4.9 million barrels per day by 2032.
What is even more surprising is that this growth is not based on mere speculation or the search for new exploration areas, such as the Equatorial Margin, including the mouth of the Amazon River. In fact, the production is already secured, driven by increased productivity in currently explored areas and the entry of new platforms into these regions.
According to Professor Helder Queiroz from the Institute of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), all this growth will be strongly concentrated in the pre-salt region, where over 70% of the national production originates from deep and ultra-deepwater reserves, approximately 7,000 meters below the sea surface.
One of the highlights in this promising oil scenario is the Búzios field, located in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin, which is considered the world's largest deepwater oilfield. Recently, it celebrated producing 1 billion barrels of oil in just five years of activity. Currently, the Búzios field produces an average of 700,000 barrels per day, but experts predict this number could reach 2 million barrels daily in the next five years. Last year, Brazil's total production was 3 million barrels per day.
In other words, Búzios could soon represent over 60% of the national oil extraction. To meet this growing demand, the field will have 11 operating platforms, with four under construction and three with contracts signed by Petrobras.
The oil and gas industry already accounts for 15% of the country's industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employing around 1.5 million people throughout the production chain and generating R$ 170 billion in taxes in 2021. With the increase in production, these numbers will substantially grow, especially considering the forecast of investments amounting to US$ 180 billion until 2030, according to economist João Victor Marques Cardoso, a researcher at the Center for Energy Studies of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Energia).
"The National Agency for Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) estimates that royalties and special participation revenues – which are destined for the Union, as well as states and municipalities where oil production occurs – will be R$ 93 billion this year. By 2026, according to ANP's projection limit, it will reach R$ 108.5 billion," emphasizes the report.
The increase in oil production also brings geopolitical implications. Brazil, currently the ninth-largest oil producer in the world, is set to jump to the fifth position in the next decade. This change in status confers a more relevant strategic position for the country in the global oil and gas production scenario. Unlike major oil-producing regions surrounded by tensions and conflicts, such as the Middle East, Russia, and some African countries, Brazil may offer a more reliable source of oil supply. This could strengthen its position in the global geopolitical arena.
Although oil exploration may raise sustainability concerns, experts point to favorable aspects for Brazil. The carbon intensity resulting from national oil production is lower than the global average, especially in fields like Tupi and the Búzios field, where it is less than 10 kilograms of CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent. In comparison, in Canada, this value exceeds 40 kilograms.
While the world is moving towards energy transition with reduced demand for oil, it's important to note that this transition will not happen immediately. Estimates indicate that the demand for oil will remain intense until 2050. Additionally, oil is essential for industries like textiles and pharmaceuticals, where viable alternative raw materials do not yet exist.